Week 4 NFL Picks: Everyone Loves a Comeback Story

Last Week: 1-4, Season: 3-7

Okay, I am sorry. To Klepp, to Matt Patricia, to Barry Sanders, to the exact pantone of blue that the lions wear, and to the great city of Detroit. I underestimated you for the second week in a row and got bit on my ass because of it. I am taking a leave of absence from betting against the undefeated Detroit Lions.

After a week full of heartbreak, deceit, and worst of all, Jarrett Stidham’s noodle arm, let’s try to get back on track.

New England (-7) at Buffalo

My take-it-to-the-bank-and-buy-a-yacht lock of the week. This has to be the most egregious line so far this year. I understand Buffalo is 3-0, but who did those wins come against? The answer: the Jets, the Giants, and the Bengals. Yeesh. New England does not mess around during division games, as Tom Brady and company usually come out swinging. The Pats have won 5 straight against the Bills, winning by double digits each time. The last time the Bills covered against Bill Belichick? October 2, 2016, when the #1 song in the country was Closer by the Chainsmokers. Yeah, it’s been that long. Don’t expect Josh Allen and Frank Gore to be able to keep up with the dynamic Patriots offense.

Seattle (-5.5) at Arizona

I am furious with how the Seahawks played last week, as they laid a dud on their home turf. However, this squad is now hungry and playing against a bottom five team in the league. Arizona’s offensive line is abysmal, so I see the Seahawks coming away with Kyler Murray’s baby-sized helmet on more than a few occasions. Mix that in with Seattle’s veteran secondary, and it becomes hard to see the Cardinals putting up more than 13 points in this one. Give me Russell Wilson for 3 easy touchdowns and the cover here.

Carolina at Houston (-4)

There are very few things in this life that give me more stress than betting on Bill O’Brien’s butt-chin but here we are. I am laying the points in this one and trusting the Houston defense at home. I think that the public is overvaluing an awful Cardinals team, which makes Kyle Allen and the Panthers look somewhat decent. Playing in Houston will be a completely different story, however. Expect Houston’s defense to play well at home like they always do, and find comfort in the fact that Carolina’s shaky secondary will not be able to withstand the air raid of the Texans. Load up on Houston. Yeehaw!

Cleveland at Baltimore (under 45)

Would you like to see a visual representation of the Browns’ offense through three weeks?

Cleveland’s circus of an offensive line comes into a tough environment in Baltimore and I couldn’t love the under more. As spectacular as Lamar Jackson has been this season, I don’t see the Browns defense giving up big plays to the MVP contender this one. I expect this game to be a classic AFC North grind-it-out battle with slow drives and lots of turnovers. Ride the under and watch Baker go down faster than Antonio Brown’s future in football.

Tennessee (+4) at Atlanta

My beloved Tennessee Titans didn’t exactly inspire in last week’s electric Thursday Night Football game. Nevertheless, when has Dan Quinn ever inspired anyone? This might as well be called the Hot Mess Bowl presented by Top Ramen because these teams both have very evident issues. However, in Mike “I would cut off my [REDACTED] to win a Super Bowl” Vrabel’s short term as head coach, he has always drawn up a solid gameplan following an offensive shortcoming. Additionally, Atlanta has one of the worst red-zone offenses to compete with Tennessee’s solid red-zone defense. I think this game will be within a field goal in the last two minutes while both teams try to shoot themselves in the leg. Maybe even Plaxico Burress will make an apperaence!

Will I try to grow out a mustache this weekend to look more like America’s hero Gardner Minshew? (Yes -150)

Hammer it.

Week 3 NFL Picks: New Year, New Me

Last Week: 2-3, Season: 2-3

By no means was last week a disaster. Dallas and New England took care of business fairly easily. In the three games we lost, Cam Newton forgot how to throw a football over 9 yards, The Bears defense let the human equivalent of an old broomstick (Joe Flacco) drive down the field to cover, and Klepp’s Lions managed to distract Philip Rivers in the endzone with a lovely group of nuns.

Isn’t it incredible that Big Phil has more children at home than nuns pictured?

But, losses are losses. I get that. However, it should be of note that there has been a significant change in my life that will impact the strength of my picks for this upcoming week. I turn 22 on Sunday. Now, with the addition of a full year under my belt between Week 2 and Week 3, these picks are not only locks, they might as well have been born in Fort Knox.

Los Angeles (-3) at Cleveland

Sean McVay and the Rams have started 2-0 and look to have the same explosiveness as last season’s campaign. A healthy Cooper Kupp and the depth of the running back stable has bolstered the offense enough to make you forget that their $134 million Berkeley graduate quarterback doesn’t know which direction the sun sets in. Cleveland on the other hand has looked less than spectacular. Although they pulled out a double digit win on the road against the Jets, it was less than inspired. They had consistently dumb defensive penalties that extended drives from Trevor Siemian and Luke Falk. The offensive line is still a mess and Baker Mayfield just hasn’t looked the same with all of his new weapons. I love the Rams in this one, as their defensive line will get to Baker all night. Take the reigning NFC champs and buy yourself one of Odell’s Richard Millie watches.

Carolina at Arizona (+2.5)

Home dogs! After blasting Kyler Murray and his height in Week 1, I liked what I saw out of the young quarterback against a tough Ravens squad. While Kliff Kingsbury’s hesitation to take risks and unleash the offense concerned me, I think they’ll bounce back at home against the depleted Panthers. Whether it is Cam Newton with approximately 0.5 healthy shoulders or Kyle Allen, the Panthers offense will not be able to score enough points to keep up with the birds.

New England at New York Jets (UNDER 43.5)

Remember the golden stat from last week? The under in Patriots games following a double-digit win is now an astonishing 11-0. The Patriots have a simple, clock-chewing strategy against teams they know they will beat. Hell, Ryan Fitzmagic had TWO pick-sixes and the under still covered. Don’t expect Luke Falk to lead the Jets’ offense to more than one score, as the Patriots have yet to give up a touchdown this season. Deflated balls or not, ride the under.

Detroit at Philadelphia (-6)

Danner do you not learn from your mistakes? Although the Lions picked up a big win against Los Angeles’ 17th most popular sports franchise, they caught a ridiculous amount of breaks from the Chargers’ laughable red-zone gameplan. Matthew Stafford still looks like he is on his way to golfing in Florida full time, and Matt Patricia looks like he would bring a full set of clubs to a putt-putt course. On the other side of things, the Eagles are hungry for a win after their disappointment in Atlanta. I expect their defense to fly all over the field and cause havoc for the Detroiters (shoutout Tommy Murray, production assistant all-star). I love Doug Pederson to coach an aggressive game and force the Lions to play catch-up. Load up on Philly.

A professional head coach in the National Football League

New Orleans at Seattle (-4.5)

Another line that is affected by an injury. With Drew Brees out and Sean Payton saying that the Saints will use a two-quarterback system, the Seahawks have never felt more appealing. When was the last time a system like that has won on the road? The Saints would be better off running wildcat than letting Teddy Two Gloves try to storm CenturyLink Field. I like Seattle’s defense to pressure Bridgewater and force him into some mistakes. Bet on Russell Wilson to have a typical home game and win by a touchdown.

Shots of Hennessey I will consume this weekend (-6.5) vs Luke Falk completions.

Hammer it.

Week 2 NFL Picks: Welcome to Lock City

Often times, there are moments in life where we collectively sit back and say, “I can’t believe I am alive at the same time as this person”. Whether that was watching Muhammad Ali duck punches, seeing LeBron James pin a layup against the backboard, or realizing that Paul George cheated on Doc Rivers’ daughter with a stripper, only to end up having her father be his new head coach, you can feel that moment of transcendence for those who excel at what they do.

One of those moments is about to begin, whether you realize it or not. The internet is about to employ the services of an absolute shark, one that makes Vegas squirm and want to run away. That’s right. “The Human Rocket Launcher”, “The Sportsbook Robin Hood”, “Sweet D Danner”, yours truly, will be giving out mortal locks each week of the NFL Season from here on out.

I have to make one thing clear before we get rolling. In this online household, we hang banners. We don’t surrender or wail around in the face of defeat, we look Vegas in the face, laugh, and walk away with a bag in hand.

Welcome to Lock City, let’s go.

Dallas (-5.5) at Washington

While Washington shocked the public in the first half of last week’s season opener against Philadelphia, they came crashing back down to Earth in the second half, giving up deep pass after deep pass. Meanwhile, Dallas curb-stomped the New York Football Giants, carving them up with deep balls in the center of the field for what seemed like fifteen straight drives. Expect more of the same against Washington. Dallas will also have the tools to put some pressure on Case Keenum and bottle up an 84 year old Adrian Peterson. I see myself clapping along with Jason Garrett as Dak and I head to the bank.

Los Angeles (-2.5) at Detroit

What type of a**hole am I to immediately fade the Lions after Klepp lets me write on the site? The type of a**hole that’s going to win money betting against Matt Patricia’s somber squad that couldn’t hold off the Cardinals in last week’s tie. The Chargers come into Ford Field fresh off of an impressive home debut against a still-pretty-solid Colts squad. After watching the Chargers’ late-game catastrophes the last five years, they seem to be past the point of blowing games at the very end. Austin Ekeler proved that they don’t need Melvin Gordon to dominate the ground game, and the loss of Hunter Henry shouldn’t steer you away from the Bolts. Expect Phil Rivers and company to cover comfortability on the road, just in time for Phil to return home and conceive his 12th child.

Tampa Bay at Carolina (-6.5)

Does this image scare you? Me neither. Take the last opportunity you’ll ever get to give less than seven points against Jameis Winston on the road.

Chicago (-2.5) at Denver

I know, I know. Betting on Mitch Trubisky might leave most shaking in their boots. Especially on the road in an atmosphere like Denver. However, that defense proved that 2018 was just the beginning, and they are staring down Joe Flacco and a shaky offensive line this week. I think Matt Nagy slows the pace in this one, gets creative with his playmakers, and finally lets David Montgomery cook.

New England at Miami (under 47.5)

This might be my favorite pick of the week. Did you know the Patriots are 10-0 in their last ten on the under the week after they win a game by double digits? Did you know the last time the Patriots hung more than 40 points on the Dolphins was in 2010? Do you think the Dolphins will score more than 7 points against a stacked New England defense that just embarrassed Pittsburgh? This will be a classic Belichick vs awful team game, with the Pats winning 35-3 or 30-7. Lock in the under and start thinking of ways to spend that money.

Number of times I will call Leigh Murray on Sunday to make fun of him for picking the Jets and Lions to make the playoffs (over 6.5)

Hammer it.