Week 9 NFL Picks: Lock City Hits the Road

Last Week: 4-1 Season: 19-21

Another big week in the books. I’m catching more Ws than Eagles receivers are catching…anything. This week we have a common theme to our picks- they’re mostly road favorites. Around this time of year I love to take road favorites as home field isn’t as valuable as it was at the beginning of the season due to bad weather, less fans in the stadium, and great teams rising from the rest. Let’s go!

Houston (-1) vs Jacksonville*

*in London

I seriously feel bad for London. First they get to see Chase Daniel try to wheel and deal and now we send them AFC South football. While this matchup has always been ugly, I love the Texans. Deshaun Watson has proved that he shows up for big games and that no defense can really slow him down. While the Texans’ defense will be missing J.J. Watt (maybe you shouldn’t have traded Clowney, Bill!) I expect the defense to give Gardener Minshew a tough time across the pond.

New York Jets (-3) at Miami

Sam Darnold, fresh off of recovering from making out with a lady of the night and seeing ghosts on the field against the Patriots and Jaguars, is actually somehow underrated in this one. For some reason, Vegas is overvaluing the Dolphins’ first half performance against the Steelers on Monday night. FitzRosen won’t be able to resist throwing interceptions to the deceptively fast New York secondary, while Le’Veon Bell will run all over the Fins. The only thing exciting about this game will be the shots of Aqib Talib looking like he is having a bad acid trip mixed with a mid-life crisis. Jets by double digits.

Green Bay (-3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

Green Bay at Los Angeles Chargers (under 49)

This is one of the more interesting lines of the season. If the Chargers were at home, this would make sense, being around 4 points in the Packers’ favor. Now, I know you either just reread that sentence or looked back at the headline and got confused because it says the Chargers ARE in fact at home in this one. Wrong. As you may know, Chargers fans are consistently outnumbered by the opposing fans in almost every game they play. The more popular a team is nationally, the more that disparity grows.

Look at the color of the crowd.

The Packers and their top-five national fanbase will roll into Los Angeles and consume that soccer stadium. It will be 70, maybe 80 percent Packers fans. Shouldn’t that count when considering the line of this game? I mean, Phil Rivers’ war-chest of kids only takes up about 11 seats! The Packers’ defense will make more noise this in Los Angeles this week than Patrick Beverly after he finishes with 5 points and 2 steals, so I like the under here too.

New England (-3) at Baltimore

If you read me weekly, you know that there has been no team I have bet on more than the New England Patriots. Although this is the Patriots’ first real game of the season, I’m going to stick with them until they lose. It’s that simple.

Chicago at Philadelphia (under 41)

After the Eagles regained new life last week in an impressive win against the Bills, I am banking on them regressing back to disappointing. The Bears, on the other hand, house one of the grossest offenses I have ever seen. While the Eagles defense has been shaky this year, I can’t see the Bears putting up more than 14 points on the road. Their defense, however, should be able to slow down the Eagles’ inconsistent offense just enough for this one to go under.

Number of My Own Children I Will Name After My Personal Lord and Savior Ryan Tannehill (over 2.5)

Hammer it.

Week 8 NFL Picks: Points, Points, Points!

Last week: 6-3 Season: 15-20

After a very successful Week 7 outing for the mayor of Lock City, let’s save some words and get back to making money. I will say, however, that I love the overs in most of the games this week. I fully expect an explosion of points, so feel free to tie some additional overs to these picks.

Cleveland at New England (-10)

Although they are easily the toughest opponent to face the Patriots this season, don’t expect the Browns to make any real noise in this one. I love Brady at home, and I especially love the New England defense to suffocate Baker. Also worth noting: Its Freddie Kitchens vs Bill Belichick! What else do you need to hear?

Denver at Indianapolis (-4.5)

The most confusing line of the week. The Colts, coming off of their two biggest wins of the season, are at home to the league laughingstock Broncos and are favored by less than a touchdown? The Colts are hot, and have quietly been pummeling teams in time of possession, and their secondary has looked solid recently. I like Indy in the Peyton Manning Bowl.

Philadelphia (+2) at Buffalo

While I love betting on the Bills’ tenacious D, I am addicted to the Eagles. I think this is a kitchen sink game for them, and I don’t believe their defensive woes will show against a slow Bills team. Expect the Birds to save their season Sunday.

Carolina at San Francisco (over 41.5)

New York Jets at Jacksonville (over 40)

Points, Points, Points!

Danner tears shed when the Clippers absolutely took it to the Lakers on opening night (over 26.5)

Hammer it.

Week 7 NFL Picks: Midterm Season

Unfortunately, I am a hardworking scholar and am swamped with midterms this week, so no write-ups on the games. However, to make up for that, here are a bouquet of picks to hand out like I’m on the season premiere of The Bachelor. Ride these all the way to the boom boom room!

Minnesota at Detroit (+2)

Baltimore at Seattle (over 48)

Oakland at Green Bay (over 47)

Arizona at New York Giants (-3)

Jacksonville (-3.5) at Cincinatti

Los Angeles Chargers (+3) at Tennessee

Philadelphia at Dallas (under 49)

Kansas City at Denver (under 50)

Kansas City (-3) at Denver

See you next week for our regularly, fade-friendly scheduled program.

Week 6 NFL Picks: To Fade Or Not To Fade

Last Week: 2-3, Season: 7-13

Well, we were cruising to a positive week and then Tennessee decided to miss 4 field goals. Just my luck. The record hasn’t been great, so if you’re one if those people who follows trends, you might want to fade me. However, I would advise against it because I upped my weekly yoga regimen and I have ascended to gambling nirvana. I’m so confident in this week I am including an extra lock. If Steph Curry missed his first 4 threes, wouldn’t that mean he’s due? This week is Favorite City, so get ready to lay some points.

Houston @ Kansas City (-4)

It’s the first inaugural “We Didn’t Draft Mitch Trubisky” Bowl! Two top five quarterbacks will face each other in a sure-to-be shootout. Although Kansas City fell victim to the most obvious gameplan of all time last weekend against the Colts, I still like them by a touchdown in this one. Houston played a creampuff last week, so their value is a bit inflated. One universal truth to note: bad offensive lines don’t travel well. I see the Texans getting their points, but ultimately I don’t think it’s possible to go into Arrowhead and beat Patrick Mahomes in a shootout. The gap between these teams is bigger than the one in Bill O’Brien’s butt-chin.

Dallas (-7) @ New York

Sam Darnold’s babyface isn’t the only thing back this week. The ‘Boys are going to come back from their god-awful two game skid to bash the Jets. Why? Because the Cowboys excel at beating bad teams. Their offense is set up to strike through the air quickly and then suffocate the other team with their ground game. Amari Cooper is on a roll, with no slowing down in sight. Dak will be able to fight off his demons early in this one and let Zeke dominate the late game. I just don’t see Sam Darnold being able to put up enough points to combat this sleeping giant of an offense. Will Jerry Jones’ liver survive Saturday Night in the Big Apple? Probably. Will the Cowboys beat the pulp out of the Jets on the road? Definitely. Will I be walking to the bank with a sack of cash and a cowboy hat like Stephen A. Smith because of this game? Absolutely.

Philadelphia @ Minnesota (under 44)

This one is pretty self-explanatory. Minnesota’s defense has given up more than 24 points at home only twice in the last two years, none of which have been this year (2-0). A shaky Eagles offense isn’t exactly the team that is going to break that trend, either. On the other side of the ball, Kirk Cousins is still a disaster against competent teams, with one of his top receivers still insisting he would rather try to catch Bigfoot than try to catch passes from the human equivalent of melted, dairy-free Vanilla ice cream. While I like the Eagles in this game, the safer pick is the under.

49ers at Rams (-3)

My bet-the-house-and-the-kids’-college-tuition game of the week. Yes, I know I completely underestimated the 49ers last week and can comfortably say that they are a top 7 team. However, I do not think they are ready for a road game in Los Angeles against the desperate Rams. Sean McVay is 7-1 in games where he has longer than a week to prepare (Curse you, Bill Belichick) and the Niners are coming off of a short week on the road. While the Niners’ offense was solid last week, Jimmy G wasn’t that exceptional as he wasn’t asked to do much with the Browns puking all over themselves. He will be asked to make plays in this game, something I am not confident he can consistently do in big spots. I don’t think pathological liar Richard Sherman and this defense will be able to keep the Rams offense in check either. This is a classic “hungry dogs run faster” game and I will be taking the Rams BIG.

Cincinatti at Baltimore (under 48)

This game will be uglier than Andy Dalton’s arm strength. The Ravens defense hasn’t looked stellar in past weeks, but they should be able to contain the Bengals fairly easily. While the Ravens have an explosive offense that is a threat to score 40 on any Sunday, they will have a heavy emphasis on running the ball as Cincinnati employs the worst rushing defense in the league. Simply put, the Ravens will win comfortably but will also take up huge chunks of time in most of their drives. That, and I can’t see the Bengals putting up more than 17 points on the road. Bet on purple in this game like you are the reincarnation of Prince.

Bonus Lock of the Week Because I Hate The Browns More Than I Hate Paper Straws & Want Them to Disintegrate Just Like Paper Straws: Seattle (-1.5) at Cleveland

It truly is a blessing and a curse that Klepp doesn’t let me curse in these.

People that I respect that own a Clayton Kershaw Jersey (under 0.5)

*Visible crying* Hammer it.

Week 5 NFL Picks: Back to the Middle

Last Week: 2-3, Season: 5-10

It seems like the new Joker movie is releasing one week too late. Last week was chaos in the NFL as road teams went 12-3 and big home favorites failed to cover or even lost (The Rams not only ruined America’s teaser, they also ruined any hopes of paying for my new PS4). This came as a surprise because of how dominant the home teams were early in the season. This puts us at a bit of a crossroads. Was last week a fluke? Or will the trend of road dogs barking louder than Sean McDermott continue? Here’s my proposition: it’s all coming back to the middle, so everybody be cool. Let’s get into the locks.

Green Bay (+3.5) at Dallas

The Big Bad Man Aaron Rodgers is heading to Dallas once again, and I could not love the Packers more. The Cowboys’ offense fell back down to Earth last week against New Orleans after a cakewalk of a schedule against New York, Washington, and Miami. Meanwhile, the Packers are coming off a mini-bye after a tough home loss to a desperate Eagles team. Against any other team of Green Bay’s caliber, I would see the Cowboys being favored by 3 as normal. However, Aaron Rodgers likes to do this fun thing of turning into the lovechild of John Wick and Superman whenever he visits JerryWorld. Against Dallas, Rodgers has 2,371 yards with 18 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions. Fade the Cowboys and load up on the Packers.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-3)

While the country focused on Jameis Winston dropping a 50 burger on the Rams last week, The Saints took care of business at home against Dallas. While Tampa Bay did manage to snag a win in the Big Easy last year, it was a week one fluke spearheaded by Ryan Fitzpatrick. Don’t expect lightning to strike twice, as the Saints should cause Jameis Winston even more problems than they did for future overpaid star Dak Prescott. The Saints’ aggressive defensive front should force Winston to have to make quick, smart decisions, and well, does that sound very realistic to you? Expect the Saints to let Kamara cook and control the clock to get a comfortable win in the dome.

Cleveland (+4) at San Francisco

Last week I said some not-so-nice things about the Browns’ offense and may have insulted the intelligence of their head coach. While I stand by making fun of any adult man named Freddie, I do have to admit that the Browns found something in Baltimore that made their run game click. Baker even looked decent, which is somehow a step in the right direction for them. On the other end, San Francisco is the most overhyped team in the league. They fall into a similar situation as the Cowboys last week, as their wins are over the Buccaneers, the Bengals, and the Mason Rudolph-led Steelers. While they are coming off of a bye and have the defensive firepower to cause trouble for Cleveland’s offensive line, I see the Browns using the same gameplan. Jimmy G hasn’t looked spectacular by any means this season, and I like the Browns defense more than the Niners. This is a field goal game, and the Niners are eating extra points when they shouldn’t be. The Browns are the pick.

Buffalo at Tennessee (-3)

Back to the well with my Titans. I have watched more Titans football than any rational and happy human being over the last ten years, and this is a classic Titans situation. Coming off a nice road win where the defense forced turnovers, the Tits are at home seemingly poised for a disappointing outing. However, Mike “Yeah I Wrestled In High School, Do You Want To See Some Of My Old Technique” Vrabel found out that Mariota in a spread offense is pretty good! Who knew? The Titans are a tough team to beat when they get out to a lead, which is exactly what will happen in this one. Matt Barkley (or Josh Allen, we still don’t know who will start) and Frank Gore won’t be able to put the Titans in an early hole, which is their kryptonite. Derrick Henry will ease the pressure for Mariota, and the Titans will win by a touchdown. Another thing of note: the Bills are a team that thrives off of turnovers, and Mariota is the only quarterback in the NFL that hasn’t turned the ball over once. Titan up!

Chicago at Oakland (in London) (under 40.5)

London!! Are you ready for the firework show that is Chase Daniel vs Derek Carr? It is truly incredible how the NFL continually manages to put extraordinarily boring games in London every single year. The worst part? This starts at 1pm EST, just like the rest of the morning games. No longer can we bet on his game and wake up in the green, we have to slug it out with the bloody fans in Europe. The Bears less-than-inspiring offense shouldn’t be able to score more than 20 and lord knows that Jon Gruden will not be able to gameplan a consistent offense against this menacing Bears defense. Even worse, Josh Jacobs has been moving a bit slow as he hampers an injury. I expect the Bears to grab a defensive touchdown in this one and win an ugly 24-6 game. Cheers to you, London! Sorry we took away the reincarnation of Mick Jagger, (very much still alive) Blake Bortles!

9th inning runs given up by Kenley Jansen this weekend (-3.5) vs Remaining weeks that Jay Gruden will be the head coach of the Washington R******* because Dan Snyder has the same IQ as an empty bottle of Sierra Mist

Hammer it.