Week 6 NFL Picks: To Fade Or Not To Fade

Last Week: 2-3, Season: 7-13

Well, we were cruising to a positive week and then Tennessee decided to miss 4 field goals. Just my luck. The record hasn’t been great, so if you’re one if those people who follows trends, you might want to fade me. However, I would advise against it because I upped my weekly yoga regimen and I have ascended to gambling nirvana. I’m so confident in this week I am including an extra lock. If Steph Curry missed his first 4 threes, wouldn’t that mean he’s due? This week is Favorite City, so get ready to lay some points.

Houston @ Kansas City (-4)

It’s the first inaugural “We Didn’t Draft Mitch Trubisky” Bowl! Two top five quarterbacks will face each other in a sure-to-be shootout. Although Kansas City fell victim to the most obvious gameplan of all time last weekend against the Colts, I still like them by a touchdown in this one. Houston played a creampuff last week, so their value is a bit inflated. One universal truth to note: bad offensive lines don’t travel well. I see the Texans getting their points, but ultimately I don’t think it’s possible to go into Arrowhead and beat Patrick Mahomes in a shootout. The gap between these teams is bigger than the one in Bill O’Brien’s butt-chin.

Dallas (-7) @ New York

Sam Darnold’s babyface isn’t the only thing back this week. The ‘Boys are going to come back from their god-awful two game skid to bash the Jets. Why? Because the Cowboys excel at beating bad teams. Their offense is set up to strike through the air quickly and then suffocate the other team with their ground game. Amari Cooper is on a roll, with no slowing down in sight. Dak will be able to fight off his demons early in this one and let Zeke dominate the late game. I just don’t see Sam Darnold being able to put up enough points to combat this sleeping giant of an offense. Will Jerry Jones’ liver survive Saturday Night in the Big Apple? Probably. Will the Cowboys beat the pulp out of the Jets on the road? Definitely. Will I be walking to the bank with a sack of cash and a cowboy hat like Stephen A. Smith because of this game? Absolutely.

Philadelphia @ Minnesota (under 44)

This one is pretty self-explanatory. Minnesota’s defense has given up more than 24 points at home only twice in the last two years, none of which have been this year (2-0). A shaky Eagles offense isn’t exactly the team that is going to break that trend, either. On the other side of the ball, Kirk Cousins is still a disaster against competent teams, with one of his top receivers still insisting he would rather try to catch Bigfoot than try to catch passes from the human equivalent of melted, dairy-free Vanilla ice cream. While I like the Eagles in this game, the safer pick is the under.

49ers at Rams (-3)

My bet-the-house-and-the-kids’-college-tuition game of the week. Yes, I know I completely underestimated the 49ers last week and can comfortably say that they are a top 7 team. However, I do not think they are ready for a road game in Los Angeles against the desperate Rams. Sean McVay is 7-1 in games where he has longer than a week to prepare (Curse you, Bill Belichick) and the Niners are coming off of a short week on the road. While the Niners’ offense was solid last week, Jimmy G wasn’t that exceptional as he wasn’t asked to do much with the Browns puking all over themselves. He will be asked to make plays in this game, something I am not confident he can consistently do in big spots. I don’t think pathological liar Richard Sherman and this defense will be able to keep the Rams offense in check either. This is a classic “hungry dogs run faster” game and I will be taking the Rams BIG.

Cincinatti at Baltimore (under 48)

This game will be uglier than Andy Dalton’s arm strength. The Ravens defense hasn’t looked stellar in past weeks, but they should be able to contain the Bengals fairly easily. While the Ravens have an explosive offense that is a threat to score 40 on any Sunday, they will have a heavy emphasis on running the ball as Cincinnati employs the worst rushing defense in the league. Simply put, the Ravens will win comfortably but will also take up huge chunks of time in most of their drives. That, and I can’t see the Bengals putting up more than 17 points on the road. Bet on purple in this game like you are the reincarnation of Prince.

Bonus Lock of the Week Because I Hate The Browns More Than I Hate Paper Straws & Want Them to Disintegrate Just Like Paper Straws: Seattle (-1.5) at Cleveland

It truly is a blessing and a curse that Klepp doesn’t let me curse in these.

People that I respect that own a Clayton Kershaw Jersey (under 0.5)

*Visible crying* Hammer it.

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