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WEEKLY FIVE WEEK 4

LAST WEEK:1-3 (25%) CAREER:5-9 (35%)

Northwestern and Utah buried us last week. On to week 4.

Texas (-7.5) vs Texas Tech

Mizzou ML (+100) @ Boston College

UCLA (-3.5) @ Stanford- 2 unit play

Kent State (+14.5) @ Maryland

North Carolina (-12.5) @ Georgia Tech

Syracuse (+6.5) vs Liberty- last minute swinging nutsack add.

Cal (+7.5) @ Washington

will add more if I play more.

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WEEKLY FIVE WEEK 3

LAST WEEK:1-4(20%) THIS SEASON:4-6(40%)

Im changing the way I go about giving picks. No longer going to give out 5 a week, from this day on it will just be an updating list of all of my plays for that given week. Let’s get back over .500

USC -7 (-105) @ Washington State- took this at 8.5. took it again at 7. like them both.

Boise State -3.5 (-110) vs Oklahoma State- Pokes toughest test yet comes Saturday night on the Smurf Turf.

UMass +21 (-110) vs Eastern Michigan- number has moved away from me. I think these teams are more comparable than 3 scores. could be in over my head but I think this is by far the best Umass team in the Walt Bell era.

Cincinatti -3.5 (-110)@ Indiana- Cincy shows out on big stage. Defense overwhelms Indiana.

Northwestern -3 (-110) at Duke-smelly pick but I think the Wildcats are closer to 7 points better than Duke.

LSU Team Total under 40.5 vs Central Michigan- LSU offense overrated. Fire up.

3 Team Tease (+180): USC -2.5/Notre Dame -1/Utah -1

DraftKings 33% boost 4 Team Parley (+1053): Minnesota ML/Boston College ML/Northwestern-2.5/West Virginia-2.5

Im eyeballing a few other plays. Most notably Penn State -4, Alabama -14, Minnesota ML. will update if I make them.

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WEEKLY FIVE WEEK 2

LAST WEEK:3-2 (60%) SEASON:3-2 (60%)

9/11- Miami Ohio at Minnesota -19 (-110)

The Gophers regroup on a long week of rest after a tough loss to Ohio State. Tanner Morgan and these wideouts will have an easier time finding a groove against a much worse secondary than they saw Thursday night. 38-17 Ski-U-Mah.

9/11- Iowa at Iowa State -3.5 (-110)*

*I have yet to bet this game because it seems like everyone is on the Hawkeyes. I have a feeling it will get down to 3 and I will take it there*

If not, I will settle for 3.5. Cyclones coming off a routine sleepy opener vs UNI and while Iowa routed the Hoosiers at Kinnick (2 Defensive TDs). I think Iowa State opens it up in this week 2 rivalry game. Cy 23 Hawk 16.

9/11- Missouri ML (+180) at Kentucky

Similar to my logic last week with UGA, I think this game is close to 50/50 so i’ll happily take +180 on either side. Mizzou looked sluggish against the Chips last week but both these teams know how much this game means for division standing. Tigers 27-24.

9/11- Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin -25 (-110)

Wisconsin had the most uninspiring week 1 in the power 5 and looks to clean things up on offense after 3 red zone turnovers. Look for the offense to open things up for QB Mertz against some inferior competition. 37-10 Badgers.

9/11- Utah -6 (-110) at BYU

The Holy War! one of my favorite rivalries in CFB. BYU is still regrouping after the loss of Zach Wilson and Jaren Hall just ain’t it. Utah cruises in the 2H. 27-13 Utes.

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CFB Playoff Predictions by John Gooch

I am shifting my attention to predicting this years Power 5 conference finishes and CFB Playoff.

SEC West

Alabama 12-0

Texas A&M 10-2

LSU 9-3

SEC East

Georgia 11-1

Missouri 9-3

Florida 8-4

Conference Championship

Georgia 34 Alabama 27

B1G West

Wisconsin 11-1

Iowa 8-4

Minnesota 8-4

B1G East

Ohio State 12-0

Penn State 8-4

Michigan 8-4

Conference Championship

Ohio State 27 Wisconsin 23

BIG 12

Oklahoma 11-1

Iowa State 9-3

Texas 8-4

TCU 8-4

Conference Championship

Oklahoma 33 Iowa State 31

ACC Costal

Clemson 11-1

NC State 8-4

Florida State 7-5

ACC Atlantic

North Carolina 10-2

Virginia 8-4

Miami 8-4

Conference Championship

North Carolina 28 Clemson 27

PAC 12 North

Oregon 9-3

Washington 9-3

California 7-5

Pac 12 South

Utah 10-2

UCLA 9-3

USC 9-3

Conference Championship

Utah 27 Oregon 24

College Football Playoff

*Conference Champion

  1. Ohio State Buckeyes* 13-0
  2. Georgia Bulldogs* 12-1
  3. Oklahoma Sooners* 12-1
  4. Alabama Crimson Tide 12-1

Ohio State 33 Alabama 27

Georgia 38 Oklahoma 31

National Championship

Georgia Bulldogs 28 Ohio State Buckeyes 24

J.T Daniels makes his case to be the number 1 pick in the draft and Kirby Smart finally gets the Championship monkey off his back.

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WEEKLY FIVE

CFB is back and so am I. Let’s go!

8/28- Nebraska -6.5 (-114) at Illinois

Nebraska played their worst game of the year in 2020 vs the Illini and haven’t forgotten. I think Scott Frost is coaching for his job week 1 while Bilema has some time to instill his culture. Corn win 34-20.

9/3- North Carolina -5.5 (-110) at Virginia Tech

I am fading Fuente and the Hokies in 2021 and it starts week 1 with a formidable opponent in the Mac Brown led UNC Tar Heels. Although I think the home environment will play a factor and this game will be close early, I also think UNC just has too much talent and too much to prove to keep this thing close for long. Carolina has a far better coach and QB so I will swallow the 5.5 in Blacksburg. 31-20 Heels.

9/4- Indiana at Iowa -2.5 (-125)

Indiana is being overhyped after a year in which they greatly overachieved and I am below market on Hoosiers QB Michael Pennix. I think Iowa runs the ball effectively and doesn’t turn it over. 27-21 Iowa.

9/4- UL Lafayette at Texas -7.5 (-113)

Back at it with my Texas love. Although I understand the respect for UL Laf and coach Billy Napier, I think Sark wins with a more talented team at home week 1 after seeing Iowa State mishandle this game last year. I have seen this number come down since it was posted and 7.5 is too low. 33-23 Texas.

9/4- Georgia +160 vs Clemson

Really excited about this game. I think JT Daniels outplays DJU in an evenly matched neutral site game. +160 seems like a good deal to me. 31-27 Dawgs.

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2021 WIWD 1 ROUND MOCK (NO TRADES)

Hello all, and merry Draftmas Eve. For my first and only published mock of the year I will be making the first 32 selections of the first round with no trades. This will proceed my free solo 2 round mock, with trades, that I will complete in podcast form tomorrow morning. Hope you all enjoy!

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence QB Clemson;  No surprises here as Jacksonville goes chalk with the best quarterback prospect we’ve seen in quite some time. Lawrence has dominated at every level and possesses an extremely high floor and ceiling, with all the intangibles you could want for a franchise quarterback. Lawrence developing under Urban Myer’s tutelage is a mouthwatering proposition for Jags nation.

2. New York Jets – Zach Wilson QB BYU; I’ll be the first to admit, Zach Wilson is a high risk high reward proposition. His tape this past fall shows me an explosive arm with a quick release who routinely exhibits his ability to complete sublime off-platform throws, as well as every other throw in the book. His possible downsides are legit, he rarely threw under any pressure and competed against a group of five schedule this past year. That being said, the anticipation and arm talent is there, which leads me to believe with proper progression and coaching, Zach Wilson has elite franchise potential.

3. San Fransisco 49rs – Justin Fields QB Ohio State; Fields is a slightly safer prospect than Wilson and offers a similar ceiling mostly due to the elite athleticism he possesses at the quarterback position. His slight deficiencies as a passer will be significantly curbed in Kyle Shanahan’s system, and his rushing upside will give the rest of the league fits. 

4. Atlanta Falcons – Kyle Pitts TE Florida; Being that this is a no trade mock, Kyle Pitts is the stick and pick for Terry Fontenot and Arthur Smith. While Patrick Surtain would fill more of a need, adding an elite upper echelon offensive weapon like Kyle Pitts to this offense would give Matt Ryan the best chance of immediate success. Pitts is truly an offensive weapon,  who will create mismatches and give defenses nightmares from week 1.

5.Cincinnati Bengals –  Jamar Chase WR LSU; Who helps Joe Burrow more? Jamar Chase or Penei Sewell? After much internal and external debate with my colleagues here at the BackJudge, I’ve come to the conclusion that Jamar Chase should be the pick at five. Chase and Burrow were a special duo in their 2019 championship run, combining for 84 receptions on 121 targets for 1,780 yards and 20 touchdowns. Yes the offensive line is abysmal, but while Penei Sewell is a fantastic step, he will not change that. Jamar Chase is your wide receiver one from day one, and makes a solid receiving core great, which I believe Burrow his best chance at success.

Kyle Pitts is a Unicorn

6. Miami Dolphins –  Penei Sewell OT Oregon; At the risk of a perceived contradiction here, allow me to justify why Penei Sewell should be the pick here over Jaylen Waddle or Devonta Smith. The Dolphins really are a left tackle away from having an solid, well above average offensive line. Their receiving talent, is quite impressive now that Will Fuller has been added to Devante Parker, Mike Gesicki, Jakeem Grant, and Preston Williams.  Adding an elite prospect like Sewell at left tackle allows Austin Jackson to shift to right tackle, pushing Robert Hunt to the inside, a position that much more suits him (This also holds true if the Dolphins prefer Sewell to play right tackle, protecting Tua’s blindside.)

7. Detroit Lions – Trey Lance QB North Dakota State; If you follow our podcast this shouldn’t be too much of a surprise. Detroit has needs virtually everywhere, but quarterback seems chief among them. Jared Goff isn’t the answer in Detroit, something that will become quite evident this fall. Detroit is stocked with draft capital in 2022 and 2023 to continue to fill out this roster. In adding Lance, Detroit could have an elite quarterback in three to five years, his physical talent and upside is that good. Lance is an elite athlete much like Fields, and possess rocket arm strength. However, Lance has only played for one year and has 318 passing attempts to his name. In Detroit, Lance is perfectly situated to take a redshirt year and start in 2022 with hopefully a better roster surrounding him. 

8. Carolina Panthers – Jaylen Waddle WR Alabama; Carolina finds themselves in a similar spot as Cincinnati and Miami, weighing the opportunity cost of offensive line vs. receiver for their young quarterback in Sam Darnold. For me this came down to Waddle or Smith, rather than Slater or Darrisaw. As my wide receiver two, Waddle’s ceiling was too much to pass up on. Waddle is the closest thing to Tyreek Hill the NFL has seen since tore up the league as  a rookie in 2016. Waddle has legit 4.2/4.3 speed with an explosive twitch skill set that makes his an absolute nightmare after the catch. He also is a complete receiver who has great ball skills, giving me confidence he can thrive both on the outside and the slot. Waddle/Anderson/Moore gives Joe Brady and Sam Darnold an explosive, versatile trio to expand the passing game. 

9. Denver Broncos – Mac Jones QB Alabama; This is probably a little too sweet for Mac Jones but I don’t think the Broncos have much of a choice, they need to upgrade from Drew Lock. Jones is that upgrade, a high floor, limited ceiling quarterback prospect that will be able to make the most of Denver’s electrifying receiving weapons. Jones just needs to be a point guard and help this offense reach it’s ceiling, in order to justify this pick. 

10. Dallas Cowboys – Patrick Surtain II CB Alabama; The Cowboys need help on the defensive side of the ball, especially in the secondary. Patrick Surtain is a scheme diverse prospect who offers the highest floor in this cornerback class. Simply put I would be shocked if Surtian is a below average starter at corner. This is what a win now team like Dallas needs, an instant impact starter as the CB1 in Big D.

Surtain II will be very good for a very long time

11. New York Giants – Devonta Smith WR Alabama; A continuing theme at the top half of the draft continues with the Giants, adding elite receiving prospects to help our quarterback on his rookie deal. Adding Kenny Golladay was a nice move by Dave Gentleman, adding Devonta Smith on top of that would be fantastic. Sterling Shepard is a good slot and would be a great wide receiver 3 here, as would Darius Slayton as your wide receiver 4 and deep threat. Giving Daniel Jones a healthy Saquon Barkley, these four receivers plus Evan Engram would allow the front office to properly evaluate Daniel Jones as his fifth year option looms. 

12. Philadelphia Eagles – Jaycee Horn CB South Carolina; With the elite receivers off the board, I think the Eagles have to address their defense. This came down to Jaycee Horn or Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah for me, and with the scarcity and positional value present with corner, as opposed to linebacker, I went with Horn. It’s hard not to love Jaycee Horn’s tape, he’s long, physical, an elite athlete, with that dawg mentality to boot. Horn is in a perfect spot to learn opposite Darius Slay, and eventually grow into one of the leagues best man to man corners. 

13. Los Angeles Chargers – Rashawn Slater OL Northwestern; The Chargers need a Left Tackle to fully complete their offensive line infront of Justin Herbert. This came down to Rashawn Slater or Christian Darrisaw, with Slater getting the nod because I think he has a higher floor while offering a similar ceiling. It’s tough to poke holes in Slater’s game, he’s a freak athlete for the position who can play all five positions across the offensive line. I’m not going to put being an elite left tackle past him, and if I’m wrong he can be an elite guard for the future in Los Angeles. 

14. Minnesota Vikings – Christian Darrisaw OT Virginia Tech; Both Jaelan Phillips and Kwity Paye were enticing here, but I’m not counting on Rashod Hill or Ezra Cleveland to protect Kirk Cousins blindside. The Vikings were abysmal in the trenches last year, Darrisaw has elite tools and will be a mauler in the run game from day one who can grow into a special player.

15. New England Patriots – Micah Parsons LB Penn State; While Parsons is a 1B to Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah in my LB rankings, I love the fit and potential of Parsons in New England. Parsons is right up Bill Belichick’s alley as a gab shooting linebacker who can be the heir apparent to D’onta Hightower, while playing meaningful, impactful snaps from week 1. Parsons is an special athlete and talent for the postion who can grow into a franchise center piece in New England under Belichick’s tutelage. 

16. Arizona Cardinals – Asante Samuel Jr. CB Florida State; I’ve firmly planted my flag on Asante island. Samuel is an instinctual, fluid corner with plenty of ball production throughout his time in Tallahassee. Samuels only real con is his size at 5’10 180, however I’m not betting against Samuel to be an absolute stud on the outside from day 1 across from Byron Murphy.

17. Las Vegas Raiders – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah LB Notre Dame; Addressing the offensive line seems to be chalk at this point for the Raiders but JOK is too talented to pass up on. Vegas needs major help with regards to their pass defense, and Owusu-Koramoah will do wonders for this need. Owusu-Koramoah is a true unicorn chess piece who can be used in multiple roles across the defense. The Raiders can address the OL on day two and three. 

Make it happen Mayock

18. Miami Dolphins – Jaelan Phillips EDGE Miami; I was fully prepared to take Rashod Bateman here but Phillips upside is too much to pass up on. Phillips is the best EDGE in this class and will fill a top need on this already imposing Brian Flores defense. Miami still has two picks in round 2 to address the offense, and adding pass rusher of his potential would give this defense a threat it sorely lacks.

19. Washington Football Team – Rashod Bateman WR Minnesota; Out of the quarterback market here, I like Washington to continue to add to the receiving core with Rashod Bateman. Bateman is a NFL ready outside receiver who has fantastic release packages and route running ability allowing him to separate with ease. Pairing Bateman with the already elite Terry McLaurin and matchup nightmare Curtis Samuel, Washington will have a dynamic receiver trio for years to come. 

20. Chicago Bears – Greg Newsome II CB Northwestern; The Bears are the toughest team to mock for, having a glaring need at QB, but taking a shot on Kellen Mond or Davis Mills seems rich to me here. Instead I attacked perhaps the seconds biggest need on their roster, cornerback. Greg Newsome isn’t the same prospect that Caleb Farley is, but his lack of significant medical risk makes him the selection. Newsome is a fluid athlete with impressive change of direction, a scheme diverse prospect with pro bowl caliber upside who can slot right across from last years second round pick, Jaylon Johnson. 

21. Indianapolis Colts – Alijah Vera-Tucker OL USC; With the acquisition of Carson Went and the retirement of Anthony Costanzo, the Colts top priority should be left tackle. Vera-Tucker was a standout at left tackle for the Trojans this past fall, who perhaps projects more as a guard at the next level. That being said, Vera-Tucker is fundamentally clean and while not being an elite athlete for the position, has the looks of a rock steady LT at the next level at the very least. 

22. Tennesse Titans – Caleb Farley CB Virginia Tech; The Titans have a host of needs despite being a division winner in 2020. Cornerback is their biggest need in my opinion, and in Caleb Farley the Titans get a truly special athlete who can step in from day 1 and help keep the Titans in their competitive window. The elephant in the room of course is the medicals, Farley just underwent his second back surgery, a micro-discectomy, which should have him ready to suit up week 1. The question remains though, how will Farley’s back hold up over multiple NFL seasons at a position that is often put through intense contact. 

23. New York Jets – Kwity Paye EDGE Michigan; While I’d love to continue to add to the offense and aide Zach Wilson’s development, getting Robert Saleh a edge rusher with the talent of Paye is too much to pass up. Adding Paye to Carl Lawson and John Franklin-Myers, gives Saleh the type of depth at the position he had in San Francisco. On top of the positional need, Paye has sky high potential due to his truly rare burst and change of direction ability. 

24. Pittsburgh Steelers – Tevin Jenkins OT Oklahoma State; While the masses shout for Najee Harris here, Pittsburgh will stay heady and take an instant impact player to slot in at right tackle. Jenkins is a entertaining watch, a mean people mover who thrives in the run game. He has room to grow as a pass protector but is no slouch by any means. With Jenkins in the fold, Pittsburg can address RB in the later rounds with a the requisite pieces in place on the offensive line. 

25. Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevon Moehrig S TCU; Jacksonville’s second selection is an interesting one, much like the Jets the have a host of needs on both sides of the ball. I opted for Trevon Moehrig over Azeez Ojulari to help round out this Jaguars secondary. Moehrig is a versatile defensive back who can play all over the backfield from day one at a high level. While he might not have the highest of ceilings, his high floor ability from both the safety, box, and nickel role should be felt in Jacksonville. 

26. Cleveland Browns – Zaven Collins LB Tulsa; The once lowly Browns have dominated this offseason behind Andrew Berry, making their roster arguably the best in the NFL. Off-ball linebacker is their biggest remaining need and Zaven Collins is a perfect fit here. Collins is an absolute freak, he is a weapon both as a gap shooting blitzer and also shows good coverage ability for a 270 pound man. Getting a player like Collins would give Cleveland an impact player at every level of their defense. 

27. Baltimore Ravens – Azeez Ojulari EDGE Georgia; With the departure of Matt Judon, Baltimore is ripe to select his replacement in Ojulari. Ojulari is right up Baltimores alley, laden with upside but also presents an impact starter from day one. Ojulari has great cornering ability and has a great first step. Baltimore is back picking at 31 to help out Lamar Jackson and the offense.

28. New Orleans Saints – Rondale Moore WR Purdue; Rondale Moore is a difference maker plain and simple. He is a dynamic playmaker who reminds be a lot of Percy Harvin. Moore has had some issues staying healthy and was really an offensive weapon at Purdue, lacking a real route tree or defined role. Giving him to an offensive guru like Sean Payton, gives Moore the best chance of eclipsing his ceiling. Pairing Rondale with Michael Thomas would give New Orleans an electric, creative pass catching duo that would terrorize the rest of the league. 

BigEasy Baller

29. Green Bay Packers – Elijah Moore WR Ole Miss; Much like Rondale, Elijah Moore is a difference maker who will improve the offense of what ever team is blessed to draft him. Unlike Rondale, Elijah has a refined receiver skill set, is a nuanced route runner, and was used in a more projectable role at Ole Miss. While he’s not as explosive as Rondale, few are, and Elijah still has great athletic testing, posting a 4.35 40 and a 6.66 three cone. The Packers are firmly in their championship window, and while Devante Adams has been able to dominate without any real help around him, adding a weapon like Moore would continue to make Green Bay an elite offense for the rest of Rodgers career.  

30. Buffalo Bills – Christian Barmore DL Alabama; Buffalo has greater needs at corner and edge, but is solid enough to take a chance on Barmore who’s high end is greater than any other in this interior defensive class. I’m lower on Barmore than most due to his inconsistencies throughout last year, but theres no denying the impact he makes on a game as a do-it-all defensive tackle when he’s on. If Buffalo can get the player we saw throughout the CFB playoff, their interior duo of Barmore and Oliver will reek havoc on the AFC.

31. Baltimore Ravens – Kadarius Toney WR Florida; The Ravens could use more of a outside bigger body receiver, but I couldn’t let a talent like Toney slip past them. Kadarius has unteachable, perhaps even unprecedented elusiveness. He can attack the middle of the field alongside Mark Andrews, playing into Lamar Jackson’s strengths.  While his receiving skill set is raw, his upside as a weapon and go to guy for Lamar is too much for me to pass on at 31.

Cole Beasley + Lamar Jackson = Kadarius Toney

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Kellen Mond QB Texas A&M; This isn’t a move to help Tampa Bay win another championship in 2021, however, getting a first round talent in Mond at the quarterback position to sit behind Tom Brady is something I like the potential of. By the Brady retires Mond could have 2 to 3 years in the system already, and has all the tools to be a good starting quarterback. Mond had no NFL level weapons during his time in College Station and would instantly be thrust into a fantastic system with Bruce Arians.

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John Gooch 2021 Predictive Mock Draft

this is me attempting to predict this years draft as accurately as possible…enjoy.

1.Jaguars- Trevor Lawrence QB Clemson

2.Jets- Zach Wilson QB BYU

3.49ers- Mac Jones QB Alabama

4.Falcons- Trey Lance QB North Dakota State

5.Bengals- J’Marr Chase WR LSU

6.Dolphins- Kyle Pitts WR/TE Florida

7.Patriots- Justin Fields QB Ohio State (Lions trade 1.7 to Patriots for 1.15, 3.96, 5.177 and 2022 1st)

8.Panthers- Penei Sewell OL Oregon

9.Eagles- Jaylen Waddle WR Alabama (Broncos trade 1.9 to Eagles for 1.12, 3.70)

10.Cowboys- Patrick Surtain CB Alabama

11.Giants- DeVonta Smith WR Alabama

12.Broncos- Micah Parsons LB Penn State

13.Chargers- Jaycee Horn CB South Carolina

14.Vikings- Rashawn Slater OL Northwestern

15.Lions- Zaven Collins LB Tulsa

16.Saints- Caleb Farley CB Virginia Tech (Cardinals trade 1.16 to Saints for 1.28, 3.98, 3.105 and 2022 5th)

17.Raiders- Christian Barmore iDL Alabama

18.Dolphins- Alijah Vera-Tucker OL USC

19.Football Team- Jamin Davis LB Kentucky

20.Bears- Christian Darrisaw OT Virginia Tech

21.Bills- Jaelen Phillips EDGE Miami (Colts trade 1.21 to Bills for 1.30, 3.93)

22.Titans- Elijah Moore WR Ole Miss

23.Jets- Travis Etienne RB Clemson

24.Steelers- Najee Harris RB Alabama

25.Jaguars- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah LB Notre Dame

26.Browns- Eric Stokes CB Georgia

27.Ravens- Trevon Moehrig S TCU

28.Cardinals- Greg Newsome CB Northwestern

29.Packers- Rashod Bateman WR Minnesota

30.Colts- Liam Eichenberg OL Notre Dame

31.Ravens- Kwity Paye EDGE Michigan

32.Buccaneers- Azeez Ojulari EDGE Georgia

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2021 3 Round Divisional Mock : NFC WEST

To kick off our Divisional Mock Draft series we head out to the NFC West, arguably the leagues best division. With all four of these teams in their respective Super Bowl windows, let’s see if we can find some fits for teams that are all expecting playoff seasons come this fall. There are no trades allowed in this exercise, so each team will be make their selections as they stand here in early April.

San Fransisco 49rs:

Round 1 Pick 3 – Justin Fields QB Ohio State

While I’ve been the BackJudge’s most vocal proponent of Zach Wilson and his ceiling, I also love the NFL prospects of Justin Fields. Fields is a superb athlete with arm strength and accuracy to boot. In two years of starting at Ohio State, Fields has demonstrated leadership, moxy, and some great tape against the nations top competition. Like Wilson, where Fields gets into some trouble is with his decision making and occasionally the ability to properly read the defense leading to some poor decisions and ugly turnovers. Enter Kyle Shanahan and his offense in San Fransisco, a system that I’ve long loved and consider to be elite. Shanahan’s system will be able to make Fields’ transition to pro game as seamless as possible while curbing some of the issues Fields has shown to have with going through his progressions. Despite my endless adoration for Kyle Shanahan and more broadly the San Fransisco organization, I will be disappointed if they pass on Fields, and to a lesser extent Trey Lance, for Mac Jones. 

Round 2 Pick 43 – Asante Samuel Jr. CB Florida State

Perhaps I’m just higher on Samuel than most, who’s lack of size will likely push him to day 2. Samuel’s lack of ideal size and physicality can lead to him getting bullied a bit by bigger, more physical receivers. However, he checks are the requisite athletic boxes to play the position at a high level and has multiple impressive moments of feel and instinct littered all over this tape. I think he’s a high floor, scheme diverse player, who at the very least can be a starting slot corner in the NFL. 

Round 3 Pick 102 – Jaelon Darden WR North Texas 

Despite having two young studs in Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, receiver is still a sneaky position of need for the 49rs. While it seems prudent to bring in a receiver who fits, the recently departed, Kendrick Bourne’s mold, adding another RAC freak to Samuel and Aiyuk is too juicy for me to pass up. Darden has been a popular draft sleeper for good reason, he’s a twitched up jitterbug, who’s change of direction and make you miss ability is as elite as it gets. At 5’8 174 pounds, Darden will likely be restricted to the slot and gadget plays, but who better to give a weapon like this to than Kyle Shanahan. The idea of Justin Fields throwing to Kittle, Samuel, Aiyuk, and Darden already has me wanting to gobble up all the San Fransisco futures I can find. 

Asante Samuel Jr. will be a steal on Day 2

Arizona Cardinals:

Round 1 Pick 16 – Jaycee Horn CB South Carolina 

Despite being a well documented Kyler Murray fan and believer, I’m still hesitant too fully buy into the 2021 Arizona Cardinals. While most of this caution is due to my lukewarm opinion of Kliff Kingsbury, also a lot of my reservation stems with this defense. JJ Watt is no doubt a great piece to add the trenches and help free up Chandler Jones. Buddha Baker is an elite safety and Isiah Simmons should continue to develop towards being a high end starter. While Byron Murphy has justified my CB1 grade on him coming out in 2019, the rest of the corner room is a mess; enter Jaycee Horn. Horn is the modern cornerback prototype; 6’1 205 with 4.39 speed and a 42” vertical. On top of the measurables and projections, Horn’s tape is also impressive. He’s got that dawg mentality, he competes every snap and backs up his talk. While his tackling ability leaves a lot left to be desired, his coverage floor and upside gives him a firm round 1 grade. 

Round 2 Pick 49 – Joseph Ossai EDGE Texas 

Behind Chandler Jones there isn’t a lot of quality depth in the EDGE room. Joseph Ossai is a high floor edge who lacks the physical traits of the names we see more frequently mentioned in this EDGE class. He still however is a impressive athlete for this position positing a 4.65 40 yard dash and a 42” vertical. Ossai has a tremendous motor, which lead to so much of his production at Texas. While he may never become an elite pass rusher, he has the tools to be productive and should be plus as a run defender. I think he offers a higher ceiling than Markus Golden and Devon Kennard and should have a solid role from day 1. 

Jaycee Horn has that dawg mentality

Seattle Seahawks:

Round 2 Pick 56 – Walker Little OT Stanford 

As a result of “Organization Hubris,” (insert:BJP Trademark) Seattle has stripped themselves of their draft capital. Their seemingly harmonious marriage with Russell Wilson showed some deep seeded resentment and tension this offseason; supposedly stemming from philosophical differences between Wilson and Pete Carrol, on top of continued porous play from the offensive line. If Seattle has any interest in repairing their fractured relationship with their elite QB, it should start in the trenches come day 2. Walker Little is a former five-star recruit who was the ninth-best overall recruit in 2017. He has an impressive build at 6’8 313 pounds and has the potential to grow into a starting NFL left tackle. The concerns with Little come from the fact that he hasn’t played in two years, opting out this past year and tearing his ACL week 1 of 2019. Little played 783 snaps in 2018, impressing in pass pro while struggling a bit in the run game. While there is considerable risk with Little, the Seahawks should be enamored by his upside. 

Walker Little is a mountain of a man with upside for days

Los Angeles Rams:

Round 2 Pick 57 – Jevon Holland DB Oregon

Like the Seahawks, the Rams have also sacrificed major draft capital with their past acquisitions, most notably Jalen Ramsey. Unlike the Seahawks, the Rams have very few glaring needs on their roster. The biggest hole is currently the free safety position, the departure of John Johnson hurts and leaves a hole across from Taylor Rapp. Jevon Holland is one of my dudes in this draft class. Another 2020 opt out, Holland’s 2018 and 2019 tape shows a high floor, immediate contributor, who has positional versatility playing both slot corner and free safety. Holland excels in coverage, racking up 20 interceptions and pass breakups through his two years as a starter in Eugene. Paired with his coverage ability, he is a willing and sure tackler in run support who absolutely sells out to make tackles in space. If Holland were to fall to late round 2, I think he’d be an excellent Johnson replacement and an immediate starter in Los Angeles’ vaunted secondary. 

Round 3 Pick 88 – Jamin Davis LB Kentucky 

Another position of need for the Rams is off ball linebacker, as Micah Kiser and Kenny Young are serviceable, yet replacement level starters. Insert Adam Klepp’s boy Jamin Davis; Davis likely wont fall to pick 88 after destroying his pro day’ measuring 6’3 234 with a 4.41 40 yard dash and a 42 inch vertical. However, in this simulation Davis falls to the needy Rams, who could use a high ceiling off ball linebacker. Davis is a bit raw but has the tools to develop into an absolute stud at the second level for a team that is currently in their Super Bowl window. 

Round 3 Pick 103 – Kendrick Green iOL Illinois 

Guard is another position that could use a influx of depth and upside, Kenrick Green screams both those things. A three year starter in Champaigne, Green has consistently improved, playing both guard and center. He thrives in the run game and is a adequate pass blocker. His athletic testing is obscene too; 6’2 305, 4.85s 40 yard dash (99th%) and a 36” vertical (99th%). Green is a certified freak who has a high ceiling because of these traits, which are so rare for guards. Green is more than worth a shot at the end of round 3 for a team who has replacement level players starting across their interior offensive line. 

Jevon Holland; Elite Aesthetic meets Elite Ability
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LEIGH’S WEEKLY FIVE UPDATE

After trying to get flexible with this the past few weeks, I have come to the conclusion that this is not the best way to give out my picks with all of the cancellations and what not. I have created a google spreadsheet with all of my picks that I am willing to share with any of my readers. Please email me at leigh10murray@gmail.com if you would like FREE access to that list. thanks for reading and I will be back next year (god willing COVID won’t be)

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LEIGH’S WEEKLY FIVE #4

LAST WEEK: 1-4 (20%) SEASON: 3-12 (20%)

This season can’t get much worse for me…I can hardly take myself seriously enough to write game descriptions. I may or may not be dealing with a case of the gambling yips but we soldier on nonetheless. Fade at your own discretion.

Miami at Virginia Tech (-1.5)

USC at Arizona (+14.5)

Arkansas (+17.5) at Florida

Northwestern (-2.5) at Purdue

Oregon State (+14.5) at Washington

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LEIGH’S WEEKLY FIVE #3

LAST WEEK:1-4 (20%) SEASON:2-8 (20%)

Changing a few things up because i’ve been sucking so bad. Moving to Fanduel.

Michigan (-2.5) at Indiana

Harbaugh coaching for his job.

Michigan 38 Indiana 24

West Virginia at Texas (-6.5)

I think Texas is hitting their stride.

Texas 40 West Virginia 28

Arizona State (+10.5) at USC

Slovis is good but this seems like too many points.

USC 31 ASU 27

UCLA (-6.5) at Colorado

0 turnovers for DTR and an energizing win for the Chip Kelly era in Westwood.

UCLA 30 Colorado 17

Clemson (-5.5) at Notre Dame

Ian Book has never won a big game. Clean up spot for the Tigers.

Clemson 34 Notre Dame 21

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LEIGH’S WEEKLY FIVE #2

LAST WEEK: 1-4 (20%)

Bad week last week. Let’s bounce back. All lines from FOX BET.

10/31/20 Memphis (+7) at Cincinnati

A touchdown is too much for these teams. Will be close in the 4th quarter.

Memphis 28 Cincinnati 27

10/31/20 Boise State at Air Force (+14.5)

2 scores and a hook here is too much for a scrappy Air Force team at home.

Boise State 35 Air Force 24

10/31/20 Missouri (+14) at Florida

Florida hasn’t practiced in 2 weeks and has a suspect defense. I’ll take the points with a sneaky offense and Mizzou.

Florida 38 Mizzou 28

10/31/20 North Carolina (-7.5) at Virginia

I lost fading UVA last week, but I believe UNC is a better team than Miami and will put up more points. This isn’t getting the best of the number but i’ll take the heels by 2 scores.

UNC 31 Virginia 17

10/31/20 Navy at SMU (-13.5)

Perfect bounce back spot for the ponies here. Navy hasn’t exactly had a great year and I think they struggle to keep up with the SMU offense.

SMU 40 Navy 21

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LEIGH’S WEEKLY FIVE #1

CAREER: 42-28-1 (60%)

F*** COVID!

I was unsure wether or not I was even going to do a WKLY5. But with the B1G back and the rest of the NCAA rolling along, I am back. All lines from FOX BET. I place all these bets.

10/23/20 ILLINOIS (+20) at WISCONSIN

Friday action…yikes

Lovie and the Illini won this one outright last year and Wisconsin lost their two best players and has some QB issues. Shout out Brandon Peters and Jim Leonhard.

WISCONSIN 27 ILLINOIS 14

10/24/20 KANSAS at KANSAS STATE (-19.5)

Kansas has been one of the worst teams in football this year, losing by an average of just over 27 points through 4 weeks and K-State hasn’t missed a beat since their season opener. I’ll take the Wildcats after a week off.

KSTATE 35 KANSAS 13

10/24/20 IOWA (-3) at PURDUE

This just seems like a low number considering these 2 programs output the past decade. Iowa runs the football and gets a win in the opener of the post Nate Stanley era.

IOWA 27 PURDUE 20

10/24/20 NOTRE DAME at PITT (+10.5)

H2P is coming off back to back 1 point losses and a loss in the gardens last week and Notre Dame hasn’t done anything to prove they are worthy of their #3 seed. Sprinkle the ML on a PITT team with nothing to lose.

PITT 28 ND 27

10/24/20 VIRGINIA at MIAMI (-11)

Something about this line stinks….but I am holding my nose. The Canes looked bad against Clemson but other than that they have been fairly impressive. UVA on the other hand has been overvalued ever since they looked decent against Clemson. A few turnover chain celebrations and the Canes roll late night in the Gardens.

MIAMI 31 VIRGINIA 17